The hottest raw material import connects the world

2022-08-15
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Raw material import continues to reach a new high, world factory becomes world warehouse

raw material import continues to reach a new high, world factory becomes world warehouse

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in the cold winter of the economy, foreign trade data have fallen, but the import of raw materials for bulk commodities is growing rapidly, especially the import of iron ore, copper, soybeans and other commodities has hit new highs one after another. Behind this, many issues deserve attention, such as whether the surge in bulk commodity imports is short-term arbitrage or effective demand, and manufacturing starts

in the cold winter of the economy, the foreign trade data fell, but the import volume of bulk commodity raw materials was growing rapidly, especially the import volume of iron ore, copper, soybeans and other commodities hit new highs one after another. Behind this, many issues deserve attention, such as whether the surge in bulk commodity imports is short-term arbitrage or effective demand, and whether insufficient manufacturing starts will cause indigestion

international commodities are pouring back comprehensively

customs data have led to a large influx of small enterprises without technical requirements. It shows that in March, China imported 16.34 million tons of crude oil, a 12-month high; The import of coal was 5.72 million tons, the highest level in history. The net import of coal in the first quarter reached 6.22 million tons, an increase of nearly 5 times over the same period last year; In March, China imported 52.1 million tons of iron ore and 374900 tons of copper, all of which also hit a record high

in the areas of serious surplus such as steel and electrolytic aluminum, international commodities have formed a trend of overall backwardness. In March, China imported 1.27 million tons of steel and 147000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum, both of which showed explosive growth, but exports fell rapidly in the same period. According to this development, China will become a net importer of steel and electrolytic aluminum in a few months

not only that, in terms of agricultural products (Market Forum), according to the monitoring of the bulk agricultural products import reporting system of the Ministry of Commerce, the import of soybeans and rapeseed in April is expected to exceed 3.8 million tons and 270000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60% and 1.8 times, both close to historical highs. In the first four months, the cumulative import volume was about 14million tons and 900000 tons, an increase of nearly 40% and 1.2 times, creating the highest import volume in history. The Ministry of Commerce issued an early warning to remind import enterprises to appropriately adjust the import pace to avoid losses caused by excessive imports. The international market exclaimed that Chinese buyers seemed to be wantonly copying bottom commodities

however, in sharp contrast, China's overall import and export data fell for five consecutive months. In March, China's exports fell 17.1% year-on-year and imports fell 25.1%

moving bricks or effective demand

to this end, learn about the current surge in bulk commodity imports from relevant industries, and summarize three reasons

first of all, China's 4trillion economic stimulus policy and the purchase and storage of bulk commodities have generally made domestic commodity prices higher than those in the international market, and arbitrage trading is profitable, giving rise to a large number of import demand

the business manager of a metal import and export trading company in Fushan Road, Shanghai, told: "at present, the domestic price is high, and there is basically no risk of using the futures market to lock in the prices at both ends." According to reports, the company has increased the import volume of copper, lead and zinc this year, including metals and ores, which are mainly sold to other domestic traders and end-user enterprises. Among them, copper demand is the largest, and copper rod factories and wire and cable factories all want goods. However, due to the poor sales of batteries, it is difficult to find buyers directly, but lead can also be transferred to other traders. "As for who they sell the goods to, it's not very clear."

the above-mentioned import and export companies have connected with many domestic traders, large and small, and some even have only one office, three salesmen and two departments. In recent months, the huge price difference between domestic and foreign goods has brought them "infinite business opportunities"

"many traders are mainly 'moving bricks' and can make a profit of 30 or 40 yuan. Now the Shanghai market is basically occupied by imported aluminum ingots." Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Jiang Ning said. He said that under the current market environment, traders do not dare to hoard goods. They are all short-term behaviors, only looking at the price difference, and do not pay much attention to fundamentals and price trends

secondly, the change of exchange rate is also a key factor leading to the surge of imports. Since the second half of last year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has remained relatively stable, while it has appreciated significantly against non US dollar currencies. Commodities from resource countries such as Brazil, Russia and Australia poured in. For example, according to traders, there are many Middle East and Russian brand plastics in the market that have never been seen before

in addition, bill financing has played a role in fuelling the flames. It is understood that because the discount interest rate of bills was inverted before, enterprises applied to the bank for issuing acceptance bills for discount according to the actual situation of economic development zone and base enterprises by pledging bulk commodity warehouse receipts or inter enterprise sales, so as to operate in a circular manner. It can not only earn the part of import price difference, but also earn the part of rising commodity prices, but also make profits in the financial market with cheap funds. In this process, because the warehouse receipts were locked, the commodity inventory increased significantly

it is understood that the new bill financing this year is particularly active in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other places where bulk raw materials are produced and wholesale. For example, ICBC Cangzhou Branch handled bill discount of 1.3 billion yuan in the first quarter, and the monthly bill discount volume of ICBC Weifang branch was as high as 3.078 billion yuan

in the "monetary policy implementation report (first quarter)" released on May 6, the central bank believed that Bill funds were mainly invested in downstream enterprises such as manufacturing and wholesale and retail industries with relatively active trade in the real economy, which played a positive role in alleviating the difficulties of enterprise capital turnover and stabilizing employment

the dilemma of RMB trend

from the perspective of strategic cohesion of development strength, China's huge foreign exchange reserves for purchasing bulk commodities is undoubtedly the right choice, but whether a large number of imports will cause indigestion is also worthy of vigilance

in April this year, the national power generation was 274.763 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.55%, a sharp increase from the year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in March

analysts said that the operating rate of the manufacturing industry is still not high, indicating that after the arrival of bulk commodity raw materials, they have not been fully consumed, and the things produced by enterprises cannot be sold. If the situation continues, a large number of raw material inventories will form a crowding out effect, which will not only occupy a large amount of funds of circulation and consumption enterprises, but also put pressure on domestic upstream resource-based industries

for this reason, it is rumored in the industry that the country may raise the import tariff of zinc ingots and aluminum ingots to 5%. Similarly, the "steel industry adjustment and revitalization plan" issued two months ago also mentioned that the fair trade policy should be implemented and the fair tax burden policy of domestic steel and imported steel should be studied

however, under the current economic pattern of China, the most direct and effective way to digest the pressure of commodity inventory is to increase exports. For a period of time, China has successively raised the export tax rebate rate of clothing, textiles, steel, plastics and other commodities, but relative to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against non US dollar currencies of more than 20%, the strength is still insufficient

"relaxing the exchange rate policy and allowing the RMB to depreciate appropriately will be beneficial to the accelerated recovery of Chinese industrial enterprises." Zhumingyuan, head of xinguolian futures research department, said

on Tuesday, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.8201, rewriting the highest level in nearly seven months

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